The music industry is feeling more optimistic than it has for years. Apple’s digital music-download service — iTunes — has won customers in far greater numbers than once seemed possible. Now with Napster 2.0 released, and what a cool interface it is, should we be looking at online piracy having diminishing returns?
The music industry is feeling more optimistic than it has for years. Apple’s digital music-download service — iTunes — has won customers in far greater numbers than once seemed possible. Now with Napster 2.0 released, and what a cool interface it is, should we be looking at online piracy having diminishing returns?
Apple’s iTunes sold 1 million songs in its week, each song priced at 0.99 US$. Now that Apple has made the service available to PC users?previously, only a Mac system would work?sales should soar still higher.
Napster 2.0 has a library of 500,000 songs to choose from, which it claims is about 100,000 more than iTunes. Its strong brand makes it a formidable addition to the market. Not surprising then that Napster and iTunes are not really bum-chums at this time! But that’s not it: the heavyweight MTV is planning to launch a similar service too!
But the fact that more people are willing to buy music online than seemed likely does not mean that the industry’s problems are anywhere near over. In the next five years, says Informa Media Group, a media information publisher, digital sales of a la carte downloads and subscription services will grow 20-fold. But they will account for only $1.8 billion, or under 6%, of the global music market. Peer-to-peer file sharing will deprive the industry of $4.7 billion of revenues in 2008.
Kazaa and Morpheus became household names around the world, as did WinMX in Asian countries, but recent lawsuits in the United States by the Recording Industry Association of America sparked fears in the minds of several users.
So the latest selling point for new versions of peer-to-peer networks in recent months is that they can guard the identity of users.
The new most popular tool that I’ve come across in recent times is the Earth Station 5, based in, of all places, the Jenin refugee camp on the West Bank. After the RIAA said it would sue, its software was downloaded more than 16m times in 90 hours. So far, it seems to work.
To glimpse the future, big music companies should look not at iTunes’ encouraging numbers but at September’s price cut by Universal Music Group, the biggest record company of all, which reduced CD prices for consumers by nearly a quarter. One reason for slumping music sales is that customers believe that CDs cost too much. Now, other firms will have to lower prices to compete with Universal. Discount stores such as Wal-Mart, Circuit City and Best Buy will drive them down more.
The success of iTunes has made clear to the music industry an uncomfortable truth: many people want to buy single tracks, not albums. Apple’s data show that its customers bought 12 singles for every one album at iTunes. That compares with 0.02 singles per album in American stores. The best artists may tempt people to buy a whole album. But the industry can no longer rely on getting the price of an album as a reward for backing a band.
Moby said recently that the record industry will have to throw out its current business model. It will no longer be able to make huge profit margins on CDs that cost next to nothing to manufacture. To compensate for lower prices, he says, the industry needs to cut its marketing for artists by as much as four-fifths. Once the record companies have less marketing clout, and with internet distribution, says Moby, artists will be in a powerful position. “Why”, he asks, “is a record company any more qualified to send an MP3 to iTunes than I am?”
One reason why people have placed a lower value on music in recent years is that record companies put so much of their energy into creating acts that are hugely, but only briefly, successful. That could change in future as the industry alters its business model. If companies cannot make money by selling online, one option will be to try to get a piece of a band’s other revenues. They would then have a strong incentive to nurture long-term quality.
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18 Comments
MusicNow also has a similar service (in partnership with “BestBuy” stores) — http://www.bestbuy.com/digitalmusic
Interesting piece. P2P stuff is increasingly being used in organizations, e.g., this music school……. http://wired.com/news/digiwood/0,1412,61173,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_3
Some tools you forgot:
- Limewire: http://www.limewire.com (based on Gnutella)
- Acquisition: http://www.acquisitionx.com/
Both have superb collections. Acquisition is of course for Macs only, but Limewire is written in Java so works everywhere (I think) Kirin
Why would I buy a dozen eggs from the market and hope they aren’t rotten when I can own the chicken and take only the good eggs? Artists that whine and complain about free downloading are most often the ones producing the stinkers. Take Metalica for example with their aptly named Load and Reload. Two Cd’s of rancid crap for the price of 100 writable Cd’s. Which one should I choose? Guess. In my opinion, this is the worst decade ever for music. Ohhh.. White Stripes! I can make better tunes in my garage… and do. Until the record industry puts out a quality product at a reasonable price they will continue to see lowered profits, p2p or no p2p.
Excellent point, Owork. I myself see that there is a reason why p2p is so popular — because customers are sending a message to the music business that they don’t like the current way music is bundled, in 10 US$ CDs where one doesn’t really have a say in what one gets. If I were in the music industry I’d be glad that consumers have given me a new business model, which can use new technology. This is exactly where Apple, Napster and MTV have seen their next opportunity.
And yes, that latest Metallica album was a real clunker.
kazaa is no more just a freebie tool. it recently had an interestint concept of selling a real movie as well http://rss.com.com/2100-1026_3-5106829.html?part=rss&tag=feed&subj=news
msn is in on it http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2003/11/18/BUGRM349Q41.DTL
Well all these download softwares have done is to get the music companies scrambling to come up with competitive offerings. Sony and Bertellsman may merge, others are in talks: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/business/3264083.stm
Cheers,
Guiliano — P.S. Can I leave my blog URL instead of email address on your site?
I pick up a copy of the local newspaper here this morning and find, on the front page, a picture of the MPAA buliding. i assume this is another list of filesharers being announced to the public and ignore it. i contenue my day, and go and collect my daily mail. i find in it a letter from the MPAA. Knowing who and what they are, i open it. it is my Cease and desist letter, one of 2 i have gotten thus far, this one far more searious than the last several months ago. this letter states that all fileshareing activity must be disabled and all illigal files must be deleted from my hard disk in order to avoid legal action. so, i humor them. i move all my files to my removalbe hard disk, transfer them to my MP3 player and uninstall Kazaa. but i will not stop sharing my knowledge with the world, and just because Kazaa is no longer a good option for me, i switched to Supernova, which i THINK is safer, and install a firewall. this begins the war between me and the MPAA.
Why does someone living in America still not stop sharing files, even with the MPAA breathing down my neck?because of my beliefs. because of the 8 year-old little girl from new york. you dont know? well, i heard that an 8 year-old girl, who’s parents are poor, downloaded 2 50 cent songs from the internet, was discoverd my the RIAA and charged with 300,00 U.S. dollars. her parents, total make about 50,00 dollars in a year. so they could not pay, they can barly make house payments, and keep there daughtor fed and clothed. the RIAA has taken them to court demanding that they pay, all at once, all “damages and copyright-infringment”. the case is still undecided by the judge. so i fileshare for the 8 year old girl who cant pay 300,00 dollars to the RIAA. i fileshare because knowledge is not bound by any law in any country, i fileshare because knowledge is power to be shared by all to all who seek it.
-The Engine of Hate-
You know, i have gotten a few emails from local friends of mine about an argument i have gotten myslef into with a member of the senior team here on the site, and they ask me why i have done what i have done. i cant tell you, i cant tell myself, but ill be damed if i let anyone walk ontop of me. i cant, too much pride on the line here to do that. to be perfectly honest with you, i love that type of stuff, as in being hated. i am a christan by birth, and hate is someting i dont have too much of, so i guess i seek it elswere. i see adversity as a good firend of mine, i love the look on peoples faces who say i cant do this, or could never achieve that, after they see i have done it. that not only gives me pride, but also shows me that i am not weak. shows me that i am enough of a man to stand and fight for my right to say something you might not like, even if i am alone. i am alone, i guess, but i still will stand, even if it means my banishment from any P2P forum.
so, what can be said? nothing. but i ask all who read this, Share. do not disable shairing in Kazaa E-donkey or any other network. if it means you are sued, at least you will be able to see for yourslef what a greedy orginizations such as the MPAA and the RIAA can do. you can see that 8 year old girl from new york, you can see for your self what greed can drive pople to do.
even, if in the end, this whole site and all others related to it are taken down, it will only grow. lets look at what happend to napster before it was finally stopped. they have already cast a public light on the whole P2P issue, and it contenues to grow. had they shut there mouths, respectable people whould have downloaded 1 song from a CD, thought that they liked it and actually purchesed the CD from a local music store, but now i see what they have in mind, and will rather download the entire CD. so what, they still make something like 30 billion U.S dollars a year, and insed of living a life of complete comfert, they only get a life of semi-complete comfert. excuse me, but i work 40 hours a week to earn my money, these people put out one album a year and live off from that, never lifting a finger.
this is for all those people who know what i mean, which is most i assume. i think that most people are like that, working 40 hours a week, some probably more, in order to provide for their loved ones or just make a little money. they dont fly in privet jets they own and have a 500,00 Dollar car, and have just as much put into “Rimz and Tirez”.
so if the FBI serves a search warrent on my house, and i am arrested and convected of copyright laws, would it matter? no, i am just a drop in the bucket, so to speak. but time has run short this saturday evening, so i must go. more on this purhaps, later.
btw, anyone who talks on this subject should read this essay http://www.red-bean.com/kfogel/writings/copyright.html peace
I prefer Canada’s approach! http://news.zdnet.co.uk/software/applications/0,39020384,39118537,00.htm
Has anyone here heard of Bit Torrent? I believe they offer a fabulous and practical alternative.
RIAA are at it again. Today it was announced the RIAA attack dogs (lawyers) filed suit against 500 more evil doers for downloading music. Their last sweep of these netted a couple in Ridgefeild WA, for downloading Rap and Heavy Metal songs. Because they live near me I heard all about these thieves. YES! The artists must be protected heinous crime. Here is a quote from the CNN article.
“Among the RIAA’s recent targets is retiree Ernest Brenot, 79, of Ridgefield, Washington, who wrote in a handwritten note to a federal judge that he does not own a computer nor can he operate one.”
Read the whole article here — ->
http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/internet/12/04/downloading.music.ap/
PS, How do you think the artists were ripped off before the Internet came along…Could it be …MMmmm …Record Industry lawyers?
To get to the source of SmR or TMD movie downloads you have to go to the source. Both these style of movies are from channel on irc. If you do not know what irc is it is a worldwide file transfer/chat network. Go to http://www.mIRC.com and download one of the basic mIRC scripts and conenct to irc.galaxynet.org and go to the channel #smr-movies or #smrmovies. There are 2. Wella ctually 3 cause SmR stands for Shadow Movie Realm but #Shadowrealm is a private invite only channel and the other 2 are its public versions. Once there ask where to get their scripts at thatw ere written by a few of us to better represent the needs of the users in those channels.
From there you can learn all about how to access “fserves” and all the stuff you will need. For the person who wants to know how to view the smr movies once downloaded you have to have the smr codec. You can get it from either one of the smr movie web pages or just search on http://www.google.com for “smr codec”.
SmR movies are compressed in a proprietary video compression format which requires the proper codec to view these movies. The SmR codec is just a hacked up version of DiVX and is not as good especially since the file sizes are exactly the same.
But all that aside that is all the info you need. IRC is the key!!!!!!
Or, you can call RIAA a gang :) — “It’s probably not the first time that record company executives have been likened to Al Capone, but this time a judge might have to agree or disagree.” http://snipurl.com/4nfm
Bit Torrent and the SuperNova site is the alternative to those wishing to keep ahead of the game. But let me pose this question.
Would there be wholesale copying of some of these files if people could afford the music, movies, etc? See, I think this is about dollars… not about FREEDOM. ’
Let’s face it… this is intellectual property… and artistic property. In my day, I only owned ONE Beatles album… WHY? I couldn’t justify spending what little money I had on music. ISn’t that what this is about NOW?
So, people are wrong to take this music to entertain themselfs with (though I do think there is no harm with downloading and PREVIEWING IT… and only buying the stuff you really like. ). OR am I wrong.
I know now I own all the beatles stuff on CD! OF course, when your an adult making all the money you need and then some, it just makes no sense to sit in front of a computer mp3ing all night, does it. So I splurge.. and I buy…
Now tell me, if you younger folks had, let’s say, six figures a year coming in to you… would you still stay up late downloading MP3’s??? Would you?
I doubt it… it is about money. I find that is the case (besides previewing songs) about 90% of the time. The newvartec dot com website is a portal site for granting access to career options in this field. You see what I mean. http://www.newvartec.com But that is for folks that want to work.
We will always have people…. like my uncle… who is perfectly capable, yet hasn’t worked in 40 years! Sad. And the teens that don’t want to improve their life, well those people are going to be like my uncle… downloading illegal stuff well into his 60’s.
Or so it seems to me. Your thoughts?
Hi JJ,
Thanks for a thoughtful note. I completely agree that downloads should be limited to previews, and my belief is that they will eventually indeed be. We are currently in a stage where the transactional model of music sales and purchase is changing, and change is always a bit more dramatic than necessary. Look at the astounding success of iTunes and all the others, it is a good harbinger of people’s willingness to pay in the right amounts. This is a lot more palatable to consumers than having 10-15 songs (on a regular CD) forced down their throat for a pre-determined lumpsum price, even if only a couple of songs turn out to be enjoyable.
Cheers, Shashank
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